It's a game we like to play. Can we predict what 2025 will bring in the fight against global warming? It's an arduous task, given that the world seems to be plunged into an era of instability, with certainties and commitments wavering. As recent events have shown, France is no exception. Unfortunately, the warning signs do not lend themselves to optimism. Let's explore future trends and their implications.
The United States to leave the Paris Agreements (again)
Donald Trump's arrival in power holds few surprises for the world's historic number one polluter in the fight against global warming. The hypothesis of an American withdrawal from the Paris Agreements in 2025 may well become reality. Donald Trump has repeatedly said throughout his presidential campaign that he would leave the agreements. Paradoxically, the oil giants, who are investing more and more in renewable energies, are arguing in favor of maintaining these commitments. However, the former president's inflexibility on this point considerably reduces the hope of a reorientation.
But what impact will this have on the world? Probably not much. Democrat or Republican, the United States has never been a leader when it comes to ambitious climate policies. The rest of the world, well aware of the limits of their commitment, is pursuing its ecological transition, relying on other drivers of innovation and governance. American inertia, while regrettable, is not likely to put the brakes on international momentum.
European green deal: full steam ahead
Without abandoning all the measures adopted as part of the Green Deal, the new constitution of the European Parliament seems to be steering the EU towards a new, low-cost Green Pact. The law on deforestation was the first to bear the brunt, being considerably relaxed and seeing its application postponed. The CSRD directive is now in the crosshairs. After the initial warning shot fired by the Draghi report, European leaders and then MEPs have now stepped into the breach. Their aim? To create new application thresholds enabling thousands of companies to escape the most stringent requirements of this extra-financial reporting standard. Probably sensing a change in the wind, a majority of EU countries have still not transposed this regulation into national law, including Germany, which is led by a coalition of ecologists and social democrats.
Even the CS3D regulation on corporate duty of care is in the hot seat, with some politicians calling for a directive already adopted a minima to be stripped of its substance. The European Parliament is therefore preparing to unravel the main pillars of theEuropean Green Deal, at the risk of considerably weakening it and compromising Europe's ambition to become a world leader in green industry.
GreenTech focuses on
The GreenTech sector, which has boomed in recent years, is set to enter a phase of consolidation in 2025. While traditional technology start-ups have struggled for some years to attract investment in an uncertain economic climate, GreenTech companies have continued to enjoy the attention of investors. This success is based on one key factor: their ability to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations, while aligning themselves with the expectations of consumers and businesses seeking sustainable solutions.
However, a new phase seems to be emerging. The trend towards mergers and acquisitions that began in 2024 is set to intensify in 2025. This concentration could consolidate the sector's strengths by reducing the less solid players and strengthening the innovative capacities of the surviving companies. Many young companies, often focused on a short-term vision, are likely to bear the brunt of this consolidation phase, struggling to compete with players benefiting from decades of expertise and proven know-how. Ultimately, the leading companies, endowed with increased resources and a clear strategic positioning, will be able to become the locomotives for a larger-scale ecological transition. This phase of maturity is conducive to the emergence of new markets based on disruptive technologies. These developments will place GreenTech at the heart of economic and climate strategies.
The growing influence of Chinese environmental policy
China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, could paradoxically play a positive role in Europe. The massive arrival of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles is already disrupting the European market, opening it up to households that previously could not afford them. Although this competition raises economic fears, it could democratize access to electric mobility and thus accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, as well as having a consequent impact on its energy mix.
However, this dynamic is not without ambiguities. Chinese production, still relying heavily on energy from coal-fired plants, remains highly carbon-intensive, which risks displacing emissions rather than reducing them. Europe's growing dependence on China in this sector also raises strategic questions. A more proactive and accessible European automotive industry would undoubtedly have enabled a more balanced and sustainable transition. What has already happened with the photovoltaic panel industry seems to be inexorably repeating itself.
Carbon credits make a comeback
After a succession of crises and scandals, carbon credits have long suffered from bad press. In 2023, the market collapsed by 61%. Far from abandoning this type of project, the countries taking part in the last COP29 took the gamble of relaunching this mechanism, but by providing a much stricter framework, under the aegis of the UN, to oversee the emission and international trading of carbon credits. This overhaul, aimed at restoring the mechanism's credibility, could revitalize the market.
At the same time, a new concept is emerging: biodiversity credits. In the wake of the European law on nature restoration, several EU countries are beginning to develop projects for issuing biodiversity credits to encourage companies to finance ecosystem preservation and restoration projects. This development could not only reinforce environmental efforts, but also diversify the tools available to respond to the climate emergency. It remains to be hoped that these measures will learn from past mistakes.
The year 2025 looks set to be a period of contrasts, where setbacks and advances will intertwine. Between political disengagement, industrial transformation and regulatory innovation, climate action remains at a crossroads. The choices we make today will determine whether humanity can truly reverse the curve of global warming, or whether it will continue to sail blindly in the face of the urgency of the situation.
